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"SBA Thanks You For All The Fish" (santabarbarianlsx)
09/23/2020 at 22:10 • Filed to: None

Here’s a pilot (excuse the pun) for a hydrogen powered conversion feasible for the Dash-8 fleet... already cost competitive, without the massive price decreases coming for hydrogen.

As Bill Gates pointed out the other day— trucking and aviation are two sectors unlikely to see much more than empty promises from the EV businesses. Batteries just weigh too much and are not energy-dense enough.

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DISCUSSION (28)

HammerheadFistpunch > SBA Thanks You For All The Fish
09/23/2020 at 22:23

“ trucking and aviation are two sectors unlikely to see much more than empty promises from the EV businesses. Batteries just weigh too much and are not energy-dense enough.”

I keep thinking how strange it is that people believe in the EV air promise.

Then again, there are people that think that jets are powered by compressed air. Seriously.

Batteries are just barely getting to be dense enough for cars.

ranwhenparked > HammerheadFistpunch
09/23/2020 at 22:27

Well, the other option is to just stop everyone from traveling and dictate that everyone must live their whole life and die within 20 miles of their birthplace. Don’t need planes at all and takes the pressure off further electric car development. That’s pretty well what’s just happened this year anyway.

HammerheadFistpunch > SBA Thanks You For All The Fish
09/23/2020 at 22:30

reading the article I think it still seems hopeful in terms of timeline and profitability, but it’s a good start. For industries with centralized fueling it make a lot of sense to use a fuel source that can be generated on site.

Nauraushaun > HammerheadFistpunch
09/23/2020 at 22:32

People still think flying cars are going to be a thing ;)

Nauraushaun > SBA Thanks You For All The Fish
09/23/2020 at 22:33

I thought trucks could work, in some ways they’re ideal since they often have super consistent, predictable routes between known stops that handle bulk trucks. It would involve battery swapping rather than charging, but if they’re built that way it’s not too bad.

I guess it’s pulling huge loads that’s the real drawback eh. Uses too much power

SBA Thanks You For All The Fish > HammerheadFistpunch
09/23/2020 at 22:34

Yeah. Completely agree. It’s like this mass delusion where everybody WANTS to believe it... but the sad reality is that batteries are only getting better at about 4% per year.

And, oddly, that’s what I took away from Tesla Battery Day— despite Musk’s promise of “breakthroughs” if you plot his new battery jelly roll against the curve going back decades? It’s still on that 4% per year trend line. With no actual change in the gradient.

So, if this Dash-8 thing is real (the motors are a known quantity)... it’s hard even to compare an existing airframe that could do hundreds of miles, on competitive economics, using hydrogen— with these re-powered Battery-Driven Cessna 150s that can stay in the air 8 minutes.

EVs have already lost in aviation... and, frankly, I think heavy trucking’s lost as well. The Tesla Semi is years late— and the Toyota Drayage Truck and Bus Trials are going great. On hydrogen.

HammerheadFistpunch > ranwhenparked
09/23/2020 at 22:34

It doesn’t have to be all or nothing. In fact I would argue that EV is just smoke and mirrors to help people feel better about current realities. EV planes will fix my future guilt....while never having a chance to deliver. until an energy density revolution happens...we’d be wise to pursue technologies that stand a chance economically and technically.

SBA Thanks You For All The Fish > HammerheadFistpunch
09/23/2020 at 22:37

Yeah, of course, when I heard Musk admit yesterday that something was “probably” five years away— what my mind heard was “oh, even Musk now admits that’s impossible...”

And, yeah, I just watched his interview from the IPO date in 2010 for Tesla where he assured the rapt interviewer that the Tesla Model S would ship in 2012 with “full self driving” as a standard feature...

SBA Thanks You For All The Fish > HammerheadFistpunch
09/23/2020 at 22:38

My money’s still on Honda and Toyota... they’ve run the math.

HammerheadFistpunch > SBA Thanks You For All The Fish
09/23/2020 at 22:41

I mean, no one has a crystal ball, and Toyota is certainly starting to figure out that more BEV is going to be in the cards for the near term compared to their hope on hydrogen...but I do think they are barking up the right tree. I honestly think that getting industry clean will make consumer adoption much easier. There are only so many early adopters that can stomach the bleeding edge of the revolution, but if you can show a buyer the real gains on an industrial scale it will feel much more solid to them.

JawzX2, Boost Addict. 1.6t, 2.7tt, 4.2t > SBA Thanks You For All The Fish
09/23/2020 at 22:46

Not to mention Hyundai is selling (and delivering) hydrogen-fuel-cell trucks to customers in Europe.

SBA Thanks You For All The Fish > JawzX2, Boost Addict. 1.6t, 2.7tt, 4.2t
09/23/2020 at 22:49

Apparently the Chinese bus trials are exemplary, too. The Fuel Cell reliability is way up, fills in 5 minutes, 500 mile range.

gmporschenut also a fan of hondas > SBA Thanks You For All The Fish
09/23/2020 at 22:52

Istill think instead of semis the best use would be for box trucks or municipal vehicles. shorter known routes

JawzX2, Boost Addict. 1.6t, 2.7tt, 4.2t > SBA Thanks You For All The Fish
09/23/2020 at 22:55

All we need now is for someone to start making electrolysis hydrogen *cough*nuclear *cough* on a scale to support the slow, eventual d eath of fossil fuels...

SBA Thanks You For All The Fish > HammerheadFistpunch
09/23/2020 at 22:56

Well, yeah, exactly this. What the “skeptics” (“oh, there’s only one way to make hydrogen and it’s expensive and uses natural gas!”, Elon. “oh, there’s no distribution network so it will fail...”, Elon.) don’t take into account is how many of those issues are sol ved-by-default if heavy trucking adopts fuel cells... Love’s, Flying J, Pilot, T/A have an existing brand, customer base and distribution. Once you can make the fuel available to the heavy trucking fleet? The trickle-down to the consumer is easy.

Ditto aircraft.

Trying to solve it for consumers is a weird thing in fact. It’s the hardest problem, it saves the least CO2 and SMOG and it’s the least financially rewarding.... IT’s a terrible place to try to enter the market, in fact.

And, yeah, I always harp on the fact that we shut down 95% of car traffic in LA in April... and smog dropped like 14%. It underscores that for CO2 and air quality— the low hanging fruit is actually heavy goods, trains, trucks, freighters.

SBA Thanks You For All The Fish > JawzX2, Boost Addict. 1.6t, 2.7tt, 4.2t
09/23/2020 at 22:59

yeah, the next gen reactors will have massive potential for off-peak hydrogen production using waste heat and electricity.

All the “oh hydrogen costs too much to make” guys are full of it...

“Yeah, using 1930s tech, it’s expensive to make hydrogen from natural gas...”

Of course, most electricity in the US today comes from natural gas, too. But don’t confuse ‘em with facts.

HammerheadFistpunch > SBA Thanks You For All The Fish
09/23/2020 at 22:59

“ It underscores that for CO2 and air quality— the low hanging fruit is actually heavy goods, trains, trucks, freighters.”

What is “reasons an inland port is a terrible Idea for utah”?

SiennaMan > HammerheadFistpunch
09/23/2020 at 22:59

I think the only way you could get to EV air anytime soon would be with airships, where physics is providing the lift and the batteries are only powering some relatively small propeller engines. Even that idea might only work if you cover the skin of the airship with something like flexible solar panels. (I suspect such panels are possible right now but are not being commercially produced at scale)

SBA Thanks You For All The Fish > HammerheadFistpunch
09/23/2020 at 23:02

yeah, it’s scary when I think about how many containers flow in and out of Long Beach and San Pedro... every one of them moved through the LA Basin with a diesel engine in one form or another.

I think I mentioned that I drove out on the I-210 toward Palm Springs in late April, a few weeks into shutdown.... There’s one spot past Pomona where you crest a little knoll— I look at LA in the rear view mirror and it’s like “oh, shit, LA’s air is s till brown!!!! How can LA be brown with no cars on the road?????”

Oh, maybe it’s not actually the cars, Elon. Even with cleaner diesels and low sulfur fuels, the heavy goods are a big issue.

3point8isgreat > HammerheadFistpunch
09/23/2020 at 23:05

I feel like saying jets run on compressed air is one of those things that's wrong, but also kind of true. There is a compressor in the engine for a reason.

HammerheadFistpunch > 3point8isgreat
09/23/2020 at 23:08

by chance have you watched or read any of these crazy theories? They all go something like “pfft, gas in the wings?! I don’t think so, its compressed air”.

It will definitely make you question whether or not we are worth saving as a people.

SiennaMan > gmporschenut also a fan of hondas
09/23/2020 at 23:10

That is the one place where EV trucks could make sense right now, all those local trucks that rarely go more than 100-200 miles in a day and spend decent chunks of time idling..

facw > Nauraushaun
09/24/2020 at 00:11

With self-driving trucks, I think you could easily just switch tractors when you run low on range. Seems like it could be done very easily, and then the depleted one goes off to charge. Of course, self-driving is a tough problem itself, but I still think we’ll get there eventually.

3point8isgreat > HammerheadFistpunch
09/24/2020 at 00:16

I had not heard about those theories. I’m not even sure why people would suggest that. Do they think combustion is a lie?

Or, what about the De Havilland Comet?! It had the engines inside the wings. Therefore, there is compressed air in the wings that also powers the plane. Bam. Solved it.

David Baker > facw
09/24/2020 at 01:26

Forget the self driving. Pony express style electric cross country trucking. Rep lacement truck and driver at set points.

bison78 > SBA Thanks You For All The Fish
09/24/2020 at 01:33

Wouldn’t it make more sense to convert the hydrogen to methane for use in aviation? That assumes that there is an adequate supply of “clean” hydrogen. Or perh ap s there are other ways to create carbon neutral methane?

just-a-scratch > SiennaMan
09/24/2020 at 11:33

EV Airships might work if you want air travel that is just a bit faster than trucks and ships with relatively small cargo or passenger capacity , certainly not nearly comparable to 500mph commercial airliners.

I’m guessing that the market for that solution is quite small. :(

SiennaMan > just-a-scratch
09/24/2020 at 19:09

Yeah, I was spit balling ideas that get to BEV flight, it was the only thing that made sense with anything like current tech. You’re not wrong that it’d be a time consuming way to go from New York to Europe for instance, and not very practical compared to a ship with a diesel engine.

Probably more comfortable than a sailing ship though ..